London Irvine Report June 13, 2007

Food Price Inflation.

If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert , in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.

Milton Friedman.

The world is drifting towards a crisis in food supply, as the law of unintended consequences kick in from subsidies to divert food into ethanol. Itself, only possible in the upside down world that fiat currency generates. But first this from the international Energy Agency, global oil demand is rising by about 2% a year, a little faster than previously expected.

Oil demand ‘rising faster than expected’

By Ed Crooks

Published: June 12 2007 13:27

World oil demand is rising faster than previously expected while non-Opec supply is growing more slowly, the International Energy Agency has said in its latest monthly assessment of the market.

The rich countries’ energy watchdog warned on Tuesday of growing tightness in oil supplies in the second half of the year, and urged the Organisation of the Petrolem Exporting Countries to raise its output.

David Fyfe, an analyst at the IEA, said: “We would very much hope that Opec production is at its seasonal low at the moment… We definitely do need more crude oil.”

The IEA now expects demand for oil to rise by 1.7m barrels a day this year compared to last year – an increase of about 2 per cent – and non-Opec oil supply to rise by just 900,000 b/d. That rise in demand is 167,000 b/d more than the IEA had previously estimated, while the rise in non-Opec supply is 97,000 b/d less.

The report estimated that world oil stocks could drop by 1m-1.5m barrels a day in the third quarter, which it said “would push forward stock cover down towards the low levels seen when prices accelerated higher in 2004. That is, by itself, a concern.”

Highlights of the latest OMR
dated: 12 June 2007

Global oil product demand is revised up to 84.5 mb/d for 2006 and 86.1 mb/d for 2007 (revisions of +250 kb/d and +420 kb/d, respectively). This results from baseline adjustments for non-OECD countries and also has the effect of reducing the miscellaneous-to-balance. World demand is now estimated to rise by 2.0% or 1.7 mb/d in 2007.

May world supply fell by 565 kb/d to 84.9 mb/d. Seasonal OECD stoppages compounded weaker OPEC crude supply, notably in Nigeria , where outages are near 800 kb/d. Non-OPEC 2007 output is trimmed by 110 kb/d to 50.2 mb/d, with growth of 0.9 mb/d this year.

Nigerian outages cut OPEC crude supply by 425 kb/d to 30.1 mb/d. While effective spare capacity stands at 2.8 mb/d, refining constraints imply much lower marketable spare capacity. Stronger demand raises 2007’s ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ by 0.5 mb/d, with the seasonal rise in the call outstripping OPEC capacity additions by 4Q07.

Dated Brent rose above $70/bbl in late May as markets tightened on stronger demand, lower supply, ongoing downstream tightness and early summer storms. Economic concerns, weaker commodities and the passing of Cyclone Gonu saw prices dip as the report went to press.

Global refinery crude throughput rose by 0.6 mb/d to 72.4 mb/d in April. Higher refinery throughput in the OECD and China offset lower runs in the FSU and India . Global crude runs could rebound to an August peak of 75.2 mb/d on higher OECD throughput.

Total OECD industry inventories rose by 9.9 mb in April, with a crude build offsetting a dip in product stocks. While forward cover stayed flat at 54 days, total OECD gasoline inventories are now well below their five-year average range.

With existing global supply falling by a little over 3% a year, depending on who’s figures to believe, the world is headed for another oil crunch.

Now back to the issue of global food supply. Higher food prices lie ahead, and that’s historically a trigger for social unrest. Making ethanol from food stocks was always going to be controversial, to say the least, as at the bottom line, someone somewhere isn’t going to be able to eat that food stock or if used as animal feed, someone somewhere was always going to be priced out of access to animal protein. And all to run a Hummer in LA. Below, the UK ’s Telegraph takes up the issue.

Global food abundance no longer guaranteed

Last Updated: 1:33am BST 13/06/2007

Global corn stocks have fallen to the lowest level since modern records began as ethanol plants gobble up output and demand balloons in China , early evidence that the era of global food abundance may be nearing an end.

Corn (maize) inventories have fallen to just 40 days’ consumption in America , according to the US Department of Agriculture, beneath the record low reached in 1973. The average is 88 days.

Corn prices have doubled since the middle of last year, with ripple effects spreading to other crops that compete for scarce land. The soaring cost of animal feed has in turn pushed up meat and dairy prices worldwide.

In New Zealand , the central bank cited a 60pc rise in milk prices as the chief reason for the latest increase in interest rates to 8pc.

China ‘s food inflation reached 8.3pc in May, with rises of 33pc in eggs and 27pc in meat prices – not helped by an outbreak of swine fever. For now, the Communist Party is relaxed, hoping that costlier food will keep peasants on the land and slow the rush to urbanisation.

Europe ‘s confectioners are reeling from a 40pc rise in butter prices over the past year, another symptom of the “agflation” hitting most food products. Food inflation is running at 6pc in Britain , 3.9pc in America , 4.9pc in Australia and 2.5pc in the eurozone. Food makes up about 13pc of the price index tracked by central banks in the rich OECD states.

The European Commission no longer has reserves to help manage the market, having dismantled its mountains of butter, meat and powdered milk under reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.

Brussels has drastically cut stocks of grains, and will soon close its maize silos altogether. Over the past year, EU barley stocks have fallen from 2.2m tonnes to 0.1m, wheat from 5.5m to 0.2m and maize from 5.6m to 2.6m.

Michael Lewis, head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank, said grain prices still had much further to rise, predicting a long catch-up rally over coming years after lagging behind metals and oil in the early phase of the boom.

“Fundamentals have been tightening ever since 2001, but now we’re hitting critically low levels of stocks. We’re seeing very big structural shifts in the world and this is going to make farmland much more expensive in the future,” he said.

—–“Shortages are emerging in places like India , which has become a net importer of wheat for the first time since 1975. We expect China to become an importer of corn by late 2008.”

Urban sprawl is eating up swathes of China ‘s most fertile land on the eastern seaboard. Crucially, the country’s 1.3bn people are switching steadily to a high-protein diet as they become wealthy, following the pattern seen in Japan , Taiwan , and South Korea .

China ‘s annual meat consumption is now 6kg per capita, compared with 13kg for its richer neighbours, so it is still likely to double again. Perversely, animal protein diets use much more grain. As a rule of thumb, it takes 10kg of animal feed – mostly corn in China – to produce 1kg of meat.

Supply is diminishing from the United States , source of 70pc of the world’s corn. America has switched a fifth of its corn harvest to ethanol as part of a strategic drive to cut dependence on oil from the Middle East . The figure was just 4pc in 2000.

While farmers across the prairies are planting corn to reap windfall gains, this entails a cut in acreage of other crops.

Over in America , it’s much the same story. Below, MarketWatch covers the food inflation beat. I suspect that food price inflation, in an age of wage stagnation for most Americans, is likely to make this a populist issue in next year’s US election. Happily for the Fed, it’s not an issue they cover. Core CPI doesn’t worry about food and energy prices, though everyone else does.

Rising food prices take a bigger paycheck bite

Here’s what you can do about the escalating price of groceries

By Jennifer Openshaw

Last Update: 8:13 PM ET Jun 12, 2007

—–The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a 7.3% jump in food prices in the first quarter of 2007.

Okay, 7.3% doesn’t match the 50% increase in gas prices. But it’s almost as troubling. The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts a 6.1% inflation rate for food for the year — almost twice the core rate and more than twice last year’s increase.

—–Here’s another sobering set of facts. As reported recently in the Wall Street Journal commodity “cash prices” section, wholesale prices of key food items have risen dramatically from a year ago:

Butter prices are up 31%

Cheddar cheese prices, up 65%

Nonfat dry milk prices, up 117%

Broiler chickens, up 17.5%

Beef, select, up 12.8%

—–The factors driving higher food prices are unlikely to go away any time soon:

Ethanol. The ethanol boom has driven corn prices up 70% in a year. Now more land is planted in corn, and soybeans, wheat, oats, and barley are all up from 5% to 35%. Plus, higher corn prices mean higher prices for animals in the food chain that eat it – such as chickens, cows, and hogs. Corn is also a key ingredient in a long list of processed foods like breakfast cereal, and so far, producers have been able to pass these cost increases on – another sign of a fundamentally inflationary environment.

Higher distribution costs. Energy hits on two fronts: It costs more to process food and it costs more to move it all to market.

World demand. The ” China effect” on energy prices has been well documented. But it also affects food. Food exports have grown as living standards in China , India and other growing economies have risen. That’s good for the economy but not for prices.

The good news is that for years food prices have declined as a percentage of income. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. families spent fully 43% of their incomes on food in 1901. By 1929 it had dropped to 24%, and by 2004 the figure was 14%.

But as income growth slows and food prices increase, this happy long-term trend may be coming to an end.

Around the world in China , where food pricing and social unrest are more closely linked, China ’s leaders have begun rethinking the wisdom of turning peasant’s food into fat cats petrol. I suspect that the west will only be about a year behind.

June 12, 2007

Food price rises force a cut in biofuels

Jane Macartney in Beijing and Tim Reid in Washington

China’s communist rulers announced a moratorium on the production of ethanol from corn and other food crops yesterday at the very time that Western leaders are rushing to embrace alternative food-based fuel technology.

Beijing’s move underlines concerns that ethanol production is driving up rapidly the costs of corn and grain. It appears to reflect a growing reality about food-based alternative fuel: it is far more expensive both economically and environmentally, than Western politicians are likely to admit.

Calls for biofuels are politically attractive for European and US politicians, amid rising petrol prices and concerns about global warming and an overreliance on Middle Eastern oil.

Communist officials in Beijing, however, who do not have the political concerns of democratically elected leaders in the West, have reacted to a rapid rise in food prices and an intense demand on farm land that threatens to make ethanol production unsustainable.

In the end, I think we will be forced off subsidised food to ethanol programs, leaving the field open for more viable non food to ethanol programs and non food to biodiesel too, hence my link of the week. For more on one possibility, click on the link for Jatropha.

Jatropha for Biodiesel Figures

In other news this week, after the Ill-Will G-8 summit, the conditioning for an Iran war has picked up again. Russia seems to be playing hardball back to President Bush. Below, the well connected website Debka, raises some interesting issues. Often cited as close to Israeli intelligence, it’s hard to tell if it’s entirely real or part of a hidden hand agenda. Stay long precious metals. Suddenly the western media “Iran Blitz” is back on again. Is another summer middle east war in the cards?

Moscow Releases Nuclear Fuel for Iran ’s Bushehr Reactor

From DEBKA-Net-Weekly Updated by DEBKAfile

June 12, 2007 , 1:12 PM (GMT+ 02:00 )

Russian president Vladimir Putin put teeth in his threats and his cynically helpful alternative suggestions regarding the deployment of US missile defenses in Poland and the Czech Republic .

DEBKA-Net-Weekly 304 disclosed on June 8 that the week before the G8 opened in Germany , Moscow released the long-withheld nuclear fuel for Iran ’s atomic reactor in Bushehr. It was delivered 24 hours before Israel launched its new military imaging satellite Ofeq-7, bringing forward the Iranian threat to Israel , according to DEBKAfile’s military sources. One immediate result has been the stiffening of Tehran ’s negative posture, sparking what nuclear watchdog director Mohammed ElBaradei called Monday, June 11, a confrontation that needs to be urgently defused.

As DEBKA-Net-Weekly reported, special nuclear containers were loaded on a train in the yard of the manufacturers JSC Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant on June 2-3. They contained two types of nuclear fuel, WER-440 and WER-1000.

The special train then headed out of Novosibirsk to Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea , 2,000 km away. There, the containers awaited loading aboard a Russian ship destined for Bandar Anzili, the Iranian military port on the Caspian shore. According to our Iranian sources, a fleet of Iranian trucks was waiting at the other end outside Bandar Anzili port to transport the nuclear fuel and drive it slowly and carefully to Bushehr, a distance of 850km, arriving June 10 or 11.

—–DEBKAfile picks up the story Tuesday, June 12, and reports that Iran duly deposited the money and the ship was permitted to set sail and cross the Caspian Sea to Iran .

DEBKA-Net-Weekly went on to report that Putin never promised Bush that Russia would deny Iran the nuclear fuel for its Bushehr reactor in perpetuity, as some administration circles in Washington have claimed in the last two years. He did assure Washington , mainly in conversations with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, that he would postpone delivery as long as he could, despite Moscow ’s contractual commitments to Tehran .

The Bush administration’s plan to deploy missiles in East Europe made the Russian president mad enough to set this assurance aside.

His move hits the US where it hurts most: The UN Security Council meets at the end of June to approve harsher sanctions against Iran for continuing to enrich uranium in defiance of previous resolutions. The Russian fuel delivery will substantially dilute the effect of such penalties, especially when the Islamic Republic is about to clinch a deal for the acquisition of long-range ballistic missiles from North Korea (as DEBKA-Net-Weekly 300 revealed on May 11).

—–2. Monday, June 4, the Russian president sent the director of the Russian Nuclear Energy Commission, Sergei Kirienko, to the Russian Interfax news agency with an announcement: “I have just visited the Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrates Plant; fuel for Iran and India is ready,” he said. “It will be delivered six months before the physical launch.”

This statement has granted the Russian president six months’ leeway for jumping whichever way he finds expedient.

It is time enough for Moscow and Washington to reach terms on the Iran issue as well as the East Europe missile deployments. If the Bush administration digs its heels in on the missile defense shield, Russian engineers employed at Bushehr will be told to go ahead and activate the reactor even before December 2007. But if Washington relents, Russian personnel can always be told to go back to dragging their feet, as Moscow did on the nuclear fuel.

Iran FM: U.S. will regret arresting the five Iranian diplomats

ISNA – Tehran
Service: Foreign Policy

TEHRAN , Jun.12 (ISNA)- Iran ‘s foreign minister stated that Iran would make the U.S. regret the “illicit” arrest of the five Iranian diplomats in Arbil.

U.S. troops raided Iran ‘s consulate in northern Iraq in early January and arrested five Iranian diplomats accusing them for fomenting unrest in Iraq .

“We will make the U.S. regret its revolting illegal action against our consulate agents,” said Mottaki speaking in a joint press conference with the former President of Mali and current African Union (AU) commissioner, Alpha Oumar Konare.

Mottaki said Iran does not miss an opportunity in talks with Iraqi officials to push for an immediate release of the five kidnapped diplomats.

“We have stressed on this point in talks with Iraqi deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh. Saleh is to meet the families of the kidnapped diplomats in Tehran ,” he said.

“We warn the U.S. government officials to release the diplomats as soon as possible,” he added while stating that Iran ‘s foreign ministry would send another remonstration letter to the UN general secretary within the next two days.

In another part of the conference, referring to the Iran-U.S. talks on the exclusive topic of “Security issues in Iraq “, Mottaki said Iran had made restoration of peace and security to Iraq as its duty.

” Iran ‘s ultimate policy is to support the Iraqi nation and government for it believes that Iraq ‘s peace is a portion of regional security,” he said while adding that Iran was keen to recommence the talks based on Iraq ‘s call, provided that the U.S. was seriously determined to resolve an issue which it was a part of.

Kuwait says US cannot use bases for any Iran strike

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) – Kuwait , a staunch US ally, said on Monday it would not allow the United States to use its territory as a launch-pad for any attack on Iran over its nuclear programme.

The United States did not ask (to use Kuwaiti military facilities for any attack) and even if it did, we will not allow anybody to use our territory,” defence and interior minister Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Sabah told reporters.

Kuwait served as the launch-pad for the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and remains the main staging point for US-led troops in the country. Around 15,000 US troops are stationed at several bases in the emirate.

On Sunday, visiting Iranian parliament speaker Gholam Ali Hadad Adel said Tehran would hit US military bases in Gulf states if they were used in an attack on his country.

“If this actually happens, we will be forced to defend ourselves… We will target those bases or points,” he said.

Meanwhile trouble is growing in Iran ’s economy. Soviet Union style economies rarely thrive. But trouble in the Iranian economy cuts both ways, from a western perspective. The region the world depends on for oil, continues to get more unstable.

Economists attack Iran president in open letter

By Our Foreign Staff Last Updated: 2:21am BST 13/06/2007

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the hard-line Iranian president, has been criticised by leading Iranian economists for ignoring his country’s economic problems while alienating the international community.

The 57 economists said in an open letter to newspapers that Mr Ahmadinejad’s policies had sent inflation soaring to nearly 20 per cent and increased poverty.

The letter also said that his government’s handling of foreign policy, including its controversial nuclear programme and the president’s infamous calls to see Israel “wiped off the map”, had added to the economic woes.

UN sanctions against Iran ‘s nuclear programme had seen foreign investment and trade dry up, the group said.

The criticism is a sign of growing dissent and dissatisfaction within Iran at Mr Ahmadinejad, a former mayor of Teheran who came to power in 2005 promising to share the nation’s huge oil wealth more fairly, but has spent his time pursuing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and aggravating relations with America.

We close on Asia with a warning from China to the world’s largest debtor, people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. For now I hope that this war of words and bluster, will remain just that, and not go on to develop into a full tit-for-tat protectionist trade war, but stay long precious metals just in case. Neither China nor America can gain from a trade war, but the collateral damage is likely to be widespread.

China warns of retaliation over US Congress bill on yuan exchange rate
06.12.07, 7:11 AM ET

BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) – The government warned of a counter response if the US Congress adopts a bill on China ‘s foreign exchange regime that could lead to higher US tariffs on Chinese imports.

‘China has all along held that developing Sino-US bilateral trade is in the interest of both sides,’ foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters.

But he added if the US Congress passed legislation which led to higher tariffs on Chinese goods ‘then the Chinese departments concerned will make a counter response.’ He gave no indication of the possible counter measures that Beijing might take.

US lawmakers are to unveil a proposed law this week that could address concerns China is keeping its currency undervalued, Congressional staff said yesterday.

The legislators say China grossly undervalues the yuan, fuelling a ballooning US-China trade deficit which hit 232.5 bln usd last year.

Some lawmakers want trade sanctions, including a possible 20 pct across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods.

Qin said China would listen to US complaints on the yuan and seek to resolve trade disputes but insisted that Washington had no right to determine the value of the Chinese currency.

Finally, after my warning on CDO’s in Monday’s “Derrivatives Crash Ahead” an alert reader sent me this overnight. Many thanks to all who send in leads to share. It looks to me like the race for cash is on. It also looks to me like Bear Stearns might have been hiding the bad news in a “bottom drawer.” The trouble is, just how many bottom drawers are there on Wall Street, and who else might operating on Enron Ethics? Stay long precious metals, an ounce of physical gold or silver never tells lies.

Bear Stearns’ Subprime Bath

Hit by the subprime market’s collapse, investors in a highly leveraged—and losing—hedge fund find they can’t get out

by Matthew Goldstein

Investors in a 10-month-old Bear Stearns (BSC) hedge fund are learning the hard way the danger of investing in risky bonds with borrowed money. The investment firm’s High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, as of Apr. 30, was down a whopping 23% for the year.

The situation is so bleak that Bear Stearns’ asset management group is suspending redemptions at the onetime $642 million fund—meaning investors have no choice but to sit on their losses. And that’s got some hopping mad.

“At the end of the day, I’d like someone to be honest with me about what’s going on,” says one investor in the hedge fund, which bet heavily on bonds backed by subprime mortgages, or home loans to consumers with shaky credit histories. An investor in Europe, who didn’t want to be identified, says he’s been trying to get his money out of the hedge fund since February.

He’s particularly incensed that on a June 8 conference call the fund’s managers set up to discuss performance, Bear Stearns officials refused to field investors’ questions. “They specifically said they weren’t taking any questions,” says the investor. “They didn’t want to say anything.”

A Bear Stearns spokesman declined to comment. Several hedge fund managers also didn’t respond to an e-mail request for a comment. But in a June 7 letter to investors, Bear Stearns says it’s suspending redemptions because the “investment manager believes the company will not have sufficient liquid assets to pay investors.” Bear Stearns’ asset management group, led by Ralph Cioffi, took the action after investors stormed the gates, seeking to redeem about $250 million, sources say.

—–In fact, things deteriorated rather quickly at the fund. The hedge fund got off to a good start, posting a cumulative 4.44% return over its first four months, according to a Bear Stearns investor letter. But early this year the fund’s performance began to suffer as the market for subprime mortgages began to implode. Coming into April, the fund was down 4% for the year.

Then things really fell apart. In April, the hedge fund posted an 18.97% decline, according to the June 7 letter obtained by BusinessWeek. But even more shocking than that big loss: only weeks earlier, the company had said it lost just 6.5% for April, according to a May 15 letter the firm sent fund investors.

At the Comex silver depositories there was little movement yesterday. Final figures were Registered 80.23 Moz, Eligible 50.09 Moz, Total 130.32 Moz.

The NYSE WIN system is now flat. The NASDAQ system is also flat. Since playing a black box system in the current geo-pol/economic climate, isn’t the wisest thing to do, we will adjust long positions to carry an offsetting deep-out-of-the-money matching option position to provide an automatic fail safe stop in the event another 1987 like event occurs before the PPT can step in.

More details on the WIN system are available at link below.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished May:

DJIA: 175 up. NASDAQ: 108 up. SP500: 149 up.

All three have confirmed the long trend as up.

This week’s featured link: D1 Oils Plc. LSE: DOO

“The problems of climate change, energy security and poverty in developing nations are global and can only be addressed by solutions that match them in reach and vision.

D1 is a UK-based global producer of biodiesel. We are building a global supply chain and network that is sustainable and delivers value from “earth-to-engine”.

Our international business is presently focused on four regional markets: India , Southern Africa , South East Asia and Australia and New Zealand . We also have business operations in a number of emerging markets.

Our vision is to be the world’s leading biodiesel business.”

A Personal Disclosure.

Over the last few months, many of the stocks we’ve linked to have made some interesting moves. Possibly because of the LIR link, more likely because of the underlying company and good management. Going forwards, I expect the commodities demand cycle to last another couple of decades due the economic rise of Asia . I expect the pace of interest in natural resource stocks to quicken. I also expect many junior resource stocks will become takeover or consolidation targets. I expect NAFTA based resource stocks to be especially prominent.

Where I hold a position prior to a company being featured as a link, this will be disclosed. Where I will be investing during the week of linking, this too will be disclosed.

In no event should my investing or not investing substitute for doing your own due diligence, if you are considering an investment in the stock.

My circumstances and resources are probably very different to other potential investors. All stocks linked in LIR, I consider to merit the link, whether or not I invest in the company. As before, neither LIR, Global Profiles nor myself get paid for featuring a link. Lastly, because I invest in a stock it does not necessarily turn it into a sure thing winner. Happily though, neither will my investing turn it into an automatic loser.

Below is the list of natural resource stocks I hold an interest in. In no particular order, they are:

Birch Mountain Resources Ltd. BMD.

Canadian Royalties Inc CZZ.

MacMillan Gold MMG.

Quaterra Resources Inc QTA.

MBMI Resources Inc MBR.

Candax Energy Inc CAX.

Derek Oil & Gas Corp DRK.

Consolidated Spire Ventures CZS.

Cornerstone Capital Resources Inc

Pacific Asia China Energy

If you have a junior resource company you think has merit and don’t mind sharing it with others, feel free to send it along. If space permits and they have no objections, we’ll try to put up a link.

Junior resource companies are not suitable for everyone, but for those who are interested in that sector, we aim to provide companies of merit. As the new century unfolds and natural resource demand soars, I think, that there will be big money to be made from prudent investment in the sector. As always, it’s important to do one’s own due diligence if thinking about making an investment. No one has more at risk in an investment than you do yourself.

If you like this report, feel free to share it with others. It is not copyrighted but open sourced. If you have comments, witty remarks, or information to share, please send them along as well. If permission is granted, we may use them in this report.

Sometimes the daily LIR gets “bounced” out of the receiver’s server. When this happens it sometimes bounces you out of the LIR database as well. If you suddenly stop receiving the daily update but didn’t actually want a break from my daily insanity, just email me at the link below to get back onto the daily list.

Graeme Irvine

Global Profiles LLC


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